那些今天出生的孩子未来会如何？（双语）

发布日期：2024-09-19 19:22

来源类型：影视小甜妞 | 作者：聂琪

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Happy birthday, baby.

生日快乐，宝贝。

You have been born into an era of intelligent machines. They have watched over you almost since your conception. They let your parents listen in on your tiny heartbeat, track your gestation on an app, and post your sonogram on social media. Well before you were born, you were known to the algorithm.

你诞生在一个智能机器的时代。几乎从你被孕育起，它们就一直在守护着你。它们让你的父母可以聆听你那微弱的心跳，通过应用程序追踪你的孕期进展，并在社交媒体上发布你的超声波照片。你在出生前就已经被算法所知晓。

Your arrival coincided with the 125th anniversary of this magazine. With a bit of luck and the right genes, you might see the next 125 years. How will you and the next generation of machines grow up together? We asked more than a dozen experts to imagine your joint future. We explained that this would be a thought experiment. What I mean is: We asked them to get weird.

你的到来恰逢本杂志创刊125周年。如果运气好，再加上遗传得当，你可能会看到未来的125年。你和下一代机器将如何一起成长？我们邀请了十多位专家来想象你们共同的未来。我们向他们解释说，这将是一个思维实验。我的意思是：我们让他们大胆设想。

Just about all of them agreed on how to frame the past: Computing shrank from giant shared industrial mainframes to personal desktop devices to electronic shrapnel so small it’s ambient in the environment. Previously controlled at arm’s length through punch card, keyboard, or mouse, computing became wearable, moving onto—and very recently into—the body. In our time, eye or brain implants are only for medical aid; in your time, who knows?

几乎所有人都同意如何描述过去：计算从巨大的共享工业主机缩小到个人桌面设备，再到如此微小的电子碎片，存在于环境中而几乎不被察觉。从打孔卡片、键盘或鼠标的臂长控制，计算变成了可穿戴的，并且——最近——进入了人体。在我们这个时代，眼睛或大脑植入物只是用于医疗帮助；在你们的时代，谁知道呢？

In the future, everyone thinks, computers will get smaller and more plentiful still. But the biggest change in your lifetime will be the rise of intelligent agents. Computing will be more responsive, more intimate, less confined to any one platform. It will be less like a tool, and more like a companion. It will learn from you and also be your guide.

未来，所有人都认为，计算机将变得更小、更丰富。但是，在你的一生中，最大的变化将是智能代理的崛起。计算将更加灵活、更贴近、更不局限于任何一个平台。它将不像一个工具，而更像一个伴侣。它将从你身上学习，并成为你的引导者。

What they mean, baby, is that it’s going to be your friend.

他们的意思是，宝贝，它将成为你的朋友。

Present day to 2034 Age 0 to 10

当今至2034年：0至10岁

When you were born, your family surrounded you with “smart” things: rockers, monitors, lamps that play lullabies.

当你出生时，你的家人就用“智能”设备包围着你：摇篮、监视器、播放摇篮曲的灯。

But not a single expert name-checked those as your first exposure to technology. Instead, they mentioned your parents’ phone or smart watch. And why not? As your loved ones cradle you, that deliciously blinky thing is right there. Babies learn by trial and error, by touching objects to see what happens. You tap it; it lights up or makes noise. Fascinating!

但没有一位专家认为这些是你接触到的第一项科技。相反，他们提到了你父母的手机或智能手表。为什么不呢？当你被亲人抱在怀里时，那闪烁的诱人东西就在那里。婴儿通过反复试验学习，通过触摸物体来看看会发生什么。你轻轻碰它，它就会亮起来或发出声音。多么有趣！

Cognitively, you won’t get much out of that interaction between birth and age two, says Jason Yip, an associate professor of digital youth at the University of Washington. But it helps introduce you to a world of animate objects, says Sean Follmer, director of the SHAPE Lab in Stanford’s mechanical engineering department, which explores haptics in robotics and computing. If you touch something, how does it respond?

华盛顿大学数字青年副教授杰森·叶普（Jason Yip）说，从出生到两岁之间，这种互动在认知上对你帮助不大。但斯坦福大学机械工程系SHAPE实验室主任肖恩·福尔默（Sean Follmer）表示，它可以帮助你了解一个充满生命感的物体世界，该实验室探索机器人和计算中的触觉技术。如果你触摸某样东西，它会如何响应？

You are the child of millennials and Gen Z—digital natives, the first influencers. So as you grow, cameras are ubiquitous. You see yourself onscreen and learn to smile or wave to the people on the other side. Your grandparents read to you on FaceTime; you photobomb Zoom meetings. As you get older, you’ll realize that images of yourself are a kind of social currency.

你是千禧一代和Z世代的孩子——数字原住民，最早的影响者。因此，随着你成长，相机无处不在。你在屏幕上看到自己，并学会对屏幕另一端的人微笑或挥手。你的祖父母通过FaceTime给你读书；你闯入Zoom会议的镜头。随着年龄的增长，你会意识到自己的图像是一种社交货币。

Your primary school will certainly have computers, though we’re not sure how educators will balance real-world and onscreen instruction, a pedagogical debate today. But baby, school is where our experts think you will meet your first intelligent agent, in the form of a tutor or coach. Your AI tutor might guide you through activities that combine physical tasks with augmented-­reality instruction—a sort of middle ground.

你的小学肯定会有电脑，尽管我们不确定教育者将如何平衡现实世界与屏幕上的教学，这在今天是一个教学法上的辩论。但，宝贝，学校是专家们认为你将遇到第一个智能代理的地方，它将以导师或教练的形式出现。你的AI导师可能会指导你完成结合体力任务和增强现实教学的活动——一种折中的方式。

Some school libraries are becoming more like makerspaces, teaching critical thinking along with building skills, says Nesra Yannier, a faculty member in the Human-Computer Interaction Institute at Carnegie Mellon University. She is developing NoRILLA, an educational system that uses mixed reality—a combination of physical and virtual reality—to teach science and engineering concepts. For example, kids build wood-block structures and predict, with feedback from a cartoon AI gorilla, how they will fall.

卡内基梅隆大学人机交互研究所的教职成员内斯拉·亚尼尔（Nesra Yannier）表示，一些学校的图书馆正越来越像创客空间，教授批判性思维和动手能力。她正在开发NoRILLA，这是一种利用混合现实（即物理和虚拟现实结合）来教授科学和工程概念的教育系统。例如，孩子们搭建木块结构，并通过一只卡通AI大猩猩的反馈，预测这些结构如何倒塌。

Learning will be increasingly self-­directed, says Liz Gerber, co-director of the Center for Human-Computer Interaction and Design at Northwestern University. The future classroom is “going to be hyper-­personalized.” AI tutors could help with one-on-one instruction or repetitive sports drills.

西北大学人机交互与设计中心的联合主任丽兹·格伯（Liz Gerber）表示，学习将越来越具有自主性。未来的课堂将会是“超级个性化的”。AI导师可以帮助进行一对一的教学或重复的体育训练。

All of this is pretty novel, so our experts had to guess at future form factors. Maybe while you’re learning, an unobtrusive bracelet or smart watch tracks your performance and then syncs data with a tablet, so your tutor can help you practice.

所有这些都是相当新颖的，因此我们的专家不得不猜测未来的形式因素。也许当你在学习时，一只不显眼的手环或智能手表会跟踪你的表现，然后与平板电脑同步数据，以便导师帮助你练习。

What will that agent be like? Follmer, who has worked with blind and low-vision students, thinks it might just be a voice. Yannier is partial to an animated character. Gerber thinks a digital avatar could be paired with a physical version, like a stuffed animal—in whatever guise you like. “It’s an imaginary friend,” says Gerber. “You get to decide who it is.”

这个智能代理会是什么样的呢？与盲人和视障学生合作过的福尔默认为，它可能只是一个声音。亚尼尔偏爱一个动画角色。格伯则认为数字化身可以与物理版本搭配，比如一个你喜欢的毛绒玩具形象。“它是一个虚拟的朋友，”格伯说，“你可以决定它是谁。”

Not everybody is sold on the AI tutor. In Yip’s research, kids often tell him AI-enabled technologies are … creepy. They feel unpredictable or scary or like they seem to be watching.

并不是每个人都认可AI导师。在叶普的研究中，孩子们经常告诉他，具有AI功能的技术……有些令人毛骨悚然。他们觉得这些技术难以预测，或者让人害怕，仿佛它们在监视着他们。

Kids learn through social interactions, so he’s also worried about technologies that isolate. And while he thinks AI can handle the cognitive aspects of tutoring, he’s not sure about its social side. Good teachers know how to motivate, how to deal with human moods and biology. Can a machine tell when a child is being sarcastic, or redirect a kid who is goofing off in the bathroom? When confronted with a meltdown, he asks, “is the AI going to know this kid is hungry and needs a snack?”

孩子们通过社交互动来学习，所以他也担心那些会导致孤立的技术。虽然他认为AI可以处理辅导的认知方面，但他不确定它在社交方面的表现。优秀的老师知道如何激励学生，如何处理人的情绪和生理反应。机器能不能判断出一个孩子在说反话，或者在厕所里胡闹时引导他？当面对情绪崩溃时，他问道：“AI会知道这个孩子饿了，需要吃点零食吗？”

2040年

16岁

By the time you turn 16, you’ll likely still live in a world shaped by cars: highways, suburbs, climate change. But some parts of car culture may be changing. Electric chargers might be supplanting gas stations. And just as an intelligent agent assisted in your schooling, now one will drive with you—and probably for you.

到你16岁的时候，你很可能仍生活在一个由汽车塑造的世界：高速公路、郊区、气候变化。但汽车文化的某些部分可能正在改变。电动充电器可能会取代加油站。正如一个智能代理在你的学业中辅助你，现在它会与你一起驾驶——并且很可能为你驾驶。

Paola Meraz, a creative director of interaction design at BMW’s Designworks, describes that agent as “your friend on the road.” William Chergosky, chief designer at Calty Design Research, Toyota’s North American design studio, calls it “exactly like a friend in the car.”

宝马Designworks的互动设计创意总监Paola Meraz将这种代理描述为“你在路上的朋友”。丰田北美设计工作室Calty Design Research的首席设计师威廉·切尔戈斯基（William Chergosky）称其为“就像车里的朋友一样”。

While you are young, Chergosky says, it’s your chaperone, restricting your speed or routing you home at curfew. It tells you when you’re near In-N-Out, knowing your penchant for their animal fries. And because you want to keep up with your friends online and in the real world, the agent can comb your social media feeds to see where they are and suggest a meetup.

切尔戈斯基说，当你还年轻时，它是你的护卫，会限制你的速度，或者在宵禁时为你导航回家。它知道你喜欢In-N-Out的招牌薯条，当你靠近时会提醒你。因为你想在网上和现实生活中跟上朋友的步伐，这个代理可以浏览你的社交媒体信息，看看他们在哪里，并建议你们见面。

Just as an intelligent agent assisted in your schooling, now one will drive with you—and probably for you.

正如智能代理辅助你的学业，现在它将与你一起驾驶——甚至可能为你驾驶。

Cars have long been spots for teen hangouts, but as driving becomes more autonomous, their interiors can become more like living rooms. (You’ll no longer need to face the road and an instrument panel full of knobs.) Meraz anticipates seats that reposition so passengers can talk face to face, or game. “Imagine playing a game that interacts with the world that you are driving through,” she says, or “a movie that was designed where speed, time of day, and geographical elements could influence the storyline.”

汽车一直是青少年聚会的场所，但随着驾驶变得更加自动化，车内空间将变得更像客厅。（你不再需要面对道路和布满按钮的仪表板了。）Meraz预测，座椅可以重新定位，让乘客可以面对面交谈或玩游戏。“想象一下玩一个与行驶路过的世界互动的游戏，”她说，或者“一个电影的设计可以让速度、时间和地理元素影响故事情节。”

Without an instrument panel, how do you control the car? Today’s minimalist interiors feature a dash-mounted tablet, but digging through endless onscreen menus is not terribly intuitive. The next step is probably gestural or voice control—ideally, through natural language. The tipping point, says Chergosky, will come when instead of giving detailed commands, you can just say: “Man, it is hot in here. Can you make it cooler?”

没有仪表板的情况下，你如何控制汽车？当今的极简内饰配有一个仪表盘安装的平板电脑，但在无休止的屏幕菜单中挖掘并不是特别直观。下一步可能是手势控制或语音控制——理想情况下是通过自然语言。切尔戈斯基表示，当你不再需要给出详细指令，而是可以直接说：“天哪，这里真热。能不能凉快点？”这一转折点就到了。

An agent that listens in and tracks your every move raises some strange questions. Will it change personalities for each driver? (Sure.) Can it keep a secret? (“Dad said he went to Taco Bell, but did he?” jokes Chergosky.) Does it even have to stay in the car?

一个监听并跟踪你每一个动作的代理引发了一些奇怪的问题。它会为每个司机改变个性吗？（当然会。）它能保密吗？（“爸爸说他去了塔可钟，但他真去了？”切尔戈斯基开玩笑地说。）它甚至必须留在车里吗？

Our experts say nope. Meraz imagines it being integrated with other kinds of agents—the future versions of Alexa or Google Home. “It’s all connected,” she says. And when your car dies, Chergosky says, the agent does not. “You can actually take the soul of it from vehicle to vehicle. So as you upgrade, it’s not like you cut off that relationship,” he says. “It moves with you. Because it’s grown with you.”

我们的专家们说不必。Meraz想象它与其他种类的代理整合——未来版本的Alexa或Google Home。“一切都是互联的，”她说。当你的车报废时，切尔戈斯基说，这个代理不会消失。“你实际上可以把它的灵魂从一辆车带到另一辆车。所以当你升级时，并不是切断了那段关系，”他说。“它会跟着你走。因为它和你一起成长。”

2049

Age 25

By your mid-20s, the agents in your life know an awful lot about you. Maybe they are, indeed, a single entity that follows you across devices and offers help where you need it. At this point, the place where you need the most help is your social life.

到你25岁左右的时候，你生活中的智能代理可能已经对你了解很多。也许它们确实是一个跨设备的单一实体，在你需要的地方提供帮助。此时，你最需要帮助的地方可能是你的社交生活。

Kathryn Coduto, an assistant professor of media science at Boston University who studies online dating, says everyone’s big worry is the opening line. To her, AI could be a disembodied Cyrano that whips up 10 options or workshops your own attempts. Or maybe it’s a dating coach. You agree to meet up with a (real) person online, and “you have the AI in a corner saying ‘Hey, maybe you should say this,’ or ‘Don’t forget this.’ Almost like a little nudge.”

波士顿大学研究在线约会的媒体科学助理教授Kathryn Coduto表示，每个人最大的担忧是开场白。对她来说，人工智能可以像一个无形的西拉诺（Cyrano），可以提供十个选项或者对你的尝试进行优化。或者它可以充当约会教练。你同意在线上见一个（真实的）人，而“你有一个AI在角落里说‘嘿，也许你应该这么说’或‘别忘了这个。’几乎像一个小提示。”

“There is some concern that we are going to see some people who are just like, ‘Nope, this is all I want. Why go out and do that when I can stay home with my partner, my virtual buddy?’”

“有些人担心，我们会看到一些人说，‘不，这就是我想要的一切。为什么要出去约会，当我可以和我的虚拟伙伴待在家里？’”

Virtual first dates might solve one of our present-day conundrums: Apps make searching for matches easier, but you get sparse—and perhaps inaccurate—info about those people. How do you know who’s worth meeting in real life? Building virtual dating into the app, Coduto says, could be “an appealing feature for a lot of daters who want to meet people but aren’t sure about a large initial time investment.”

虚拟的初次约会可能解决我们当今的一个难题：应用程序使寻找匹配变得更容易，但你得到的信息稀少，可能还不准确。你怎么知道谁值得在现实中见面？Coduto说，将虚拟约会融入应用程序可能对那些想见人但不确定是否要投入大量初始时间的约会者来说，是一个很吸引人的功能。

T. Makana Chock, who directs the Extended Reality Lab at Syracuse University, thinks things could go a step further: first dates where both parties send an AI version of themselves in their place. “That would tell both of you that this is working—or this is definitely not going to work,” Chock says. If the date is a dud—well, at least you weren’t on it.

锡拉丘兹大学扩展现实实验室的负责人T. Makana Chock认为，事情可能会更进一步：双方可以派AI版本替自己进行初次约会。Chock说：“这可以告诉你们双方，这种方式是否奏效，或者绝对行不通。”如果约会失败了——至少你本人没有在场。

Or maybe you will just date an entirely virtual being, says Sun Joo (Grace) Ahn, who directs the Center for Advanced Computer-Human Ecosystems at the University of Georgia. Or you’ll go to a virtual party, have an amazing time, “and then later on you realize that you were the only real human in that entire room. Everybody else was AI.”

或者你可能只是和一个完全虚拟的存在约会，乔治亚大学高级人机生态系统中心主任孙珠（Grace Ahn）说。或者你去参加一个虚拟派对，玩得很开心，“后来你才意识到你是整个房间里唯一的真人。其他人都是AI。”

This might sound odd, says Ahn, but “humans are really good at building relationships with nonhuman entities.” It’s why you pour your heart out to your dog—or treat ChatGPT like a therapist.

这听起来可能很奇怪，Ahn说，但“人类在与非人类实体建立关系方面真的很擅长。”这就是为什么你会向你的狗倾诉心声，或者把ChatGPT当成治疗师。

There is a problem, though, when virtual relationships become too accommodating, says Chock: If you get used to agents that are tailored to please you, you get less skilled at dealing with real people and risking awkwardness or rejection. “You still need to have human interaction,” she says. “And there is some concern that we are going to see some people who are just like, ‘Nope, this is all I want. Why go out and do that when I can stay home with my partner, my virtual buddy?’”

然而，当虚拟关系变得过于顺从时，就会出现一个问题，Chock说：如果你习惯了为你量身定做的代理，你处理真人并冒尴尬或被拒绝的风险的能力就会减弱。“你仍然需要与人类互动，”她说。“有些人担心，我们会看到一些人说，‘不，这就是我想要的一切。为什么要出去约会，当我可以和我的虚拟伙伴待在家里？’”

By now, social media, online dating, and livestreaming have likely intertwined and become more immersive. Engineers have shrunk the obstacles to true telepresence: internet lag time, the uncanny valley, and clunky headsets, which may now be replaced by something more like glasses or smart contact lenses.

到现在，社交媒体、在线约会和直播可能已经交织在一起，并变得更加沉浸式。工程师们已经缩小了实现真正远程存在的障碍：网络延迟时间、不协调的虚拟图像和笨重的头戴设备，这些现在可能已经被更像眼镜或智能隐形眼镜的东西取代。

Online experiences may be less like observing someone else’s life and more like living it. Imagine, says Follmer: A basketball star wears clothing and skin sensors that track body position, motion, and forces, plus super-thin gloves that sense the texture of the ball. You, watching from your couch, wear a jersey and gloves made of smart textiles, woven with actuators that transmit whatever the player feels. When the athlete gets shoved, Follmer says, your fan gear *“*can really shove you right back.”

在线体验可能不再像观察别人的生活，而更像是亲身体验。Follmer说，想象一下：一位篮球明星穿着带有追踪身体位置、运动和力的传感器的衣物和皮肤传感器，还有可以感知球的纹理的超薄手套。你在沙发上观看，穿着由智能纺织品制成的球衣和手套，这些纺织品编织着能传递球员感觉的致动器。当运动员被推搡时，Follmer说，你的球迷装备“真的可以把你推回来。”

Gaming is another obvious application. But it’s not the likely first mover in this space. Nobody else wants to say this on the record, so I will: It’s porn. (Baby, ask your parents and/or AI tutor when you’re older.)

游戏是另一个显而易见的应用。但在这个领域，它可能不会是第一个推动者。没人想在记录中这么说，所以我来说：是色情内容。（宝贝，当你长大一点的时候，问问你的父母和/或AI导师。）

By your 20s, you are probably wrestling with the dilemmas of a life spent online and on camera. Coduto thinks you might rebel, opting out of social media because your parents documented your first 18 years without permission. As an adult, you’ll want tighter rules for privacy and consent, better ways to verify authenticity, and more control over sensitive materials, like a button that could nuke your old sexts.

到了20多岁的时候，你可能在应对在线和摄像头生活的困境。Coduto认为，你可能会反叛，退出社交媒体，因为你的父母未经允许就记录了你前18年的生活。作为成年人，你会希望有更严格的隐私和同意规则，更好的验证真实性的方法，以及更多控制敏感材料的手段，比如一个可以删除你旧自拍的按钮。

But maybe it’s the opposite: Now you are an influencer yourself. If so, your body can be your display space. Today, wearables are basically boxes of electronics strapped onto limbs. Tomorrow, hopes Cindy Hsin-Liu Kao, who runs the Hybrid Body Lab at Cornell University, they will be more like your own skin. Kao develops wearables like color-changing eyeshadow stickers and mini nail trackpads that can control a phone or open a car door. In the not-too-distant future, she imagines, “you might be able to rent out each of your fingernails as an ad for social media.” Or maybe your hair: Weaving in super-thin programmable LED strands could make it a kind of screen.

但也许是相反的：现在你自己是一个网红了。如果是这样，你的身体可以是你的展示空间。今天，穿戴设备基本上是绑在四肢上的电子盒子。明天，康奈尔大学混合身体实验室的Cindy Hsin-Liu Kao希望它们更像你的皮肤。Kao开发了可更换颜色的眼影贴纸和迷你指甲触控板，可以控制手机或打开车门。在不久的将来，她想象，“你可能可以把你的每个指甲出租作为社交媒体的广告。”或者你的头发：编织进超薄可编程LED丝线，可以使它成为一种屏幕。

What if those smart lenses could be display spaces too? “That would be really creepy,” she muses. “Just looking into someone’s eyes and it’s, like, CNN.”

如果这些智能隐形眼镜也能成为显示空间呢？“那真的很诡异，”她若有所思地说。“只是看着某人的眼睛，就像是在看CNN一样。”

2059

Age 35

By now, you’ve probably settled into domestic life—but it might not look much like the home you grew up in. Keith Evan Green, a professor of human-centered design at Cornell, doesn’t think we should imagine a home of the future. “I would call it a room of the future,” he says, because it will be the place for everything—work, school, play. This trend was hastened by the covid pandemic.

到现在，你可能已经安定下来过上了家庭生活——但这可能与你成长的家大不相同。康奈尔大学以人为中心设计教授Keith Evan Green并不认为我们应该想象未来的家。“我会称它为未来的房间，”他说，因为它将是一个可以用于一切的地方——工作、上学、玩耍。新冠疫情加速了这一趋势。

Your place will probably be small if you live in a big city. The uncertainties of climate change and transportation costs mean we can’t build cities infinitely outward. So he imagines a reconfigurable architectural robotic space: Walls move, objects inflate or unfold, furniture appears or dissolves into surfaces or recombines. Any necessary computing power is embedded. The home will finally be what Le Corbusier imagined: a machine for living in.

如果你住在大城市，你的居住空间可能会很小。气候变化和交通成本的不确定性意味着我们无法无限制地向外扩展城市。所以他设想了一种可重新配置的建筑机器人空间：墙壁移动，物体膨胀或展开，家具出现或融入表面或重新组合。任何必要的计算能力都嵌入其中。房子将最终成为勒·柯布西耶所设想的那样：一个用于居住的机器。

Green pictures this space as spartan but beautiful, like a temple—a place, he says, to think and be. “I would characterize it as this capacious monastic cell that is empty of most things but us,” he says.

Green将这种空间描绘为简朴而美丽，就像一个寺庙——一个他所说的可以思考和存在的地方。“我会将其描述为一个宽敞的修道院般的房间，里面几乎没有其他东西，只有我们自己。”他说。

Our experts think your home, like your car, will respond to voice or gestural control. But it will make some decisions autonomously, learning by observing you: your motion, location, temperature.

我们的专家认为，你的家就像你的车一样，可以通过语音或手势控制。但它也会自主做出一些决定，通过观察你来学习：你的动作、位置、温度。

Ivan Poupyrev, CEO and cofounder of Archetype AI, says we’ll no longer control each smart appliance through its own app. Instead, he says, think of the home as a stage and you as the director. “You don’t interact with the air conditioner. You don’t interact with a TV,” he says. “You interact with the home as a total.” Instead of telling the TV to play a specific program, you make high-level demands of the entire space: “Turn on something interesting for me; I’m tired.” Or: “What is the plan for tomorrow?”

Archetype AI的首席执行官兼联合创始人Ivan Poupyrev说，我们将不再通过各自的应用程序来控制每个智能家电。相反，他说，可以把家想象成一个舞台，而你是导演。“你不会与空调互动。你不会与电视互动，”他说。“你与整个家互动。”与其告诉电视播放特定的节目，不如对整个空间提出高层次的需求：“打开一些让我感兴趣的东西；我累了。”或者：“明天的计划是什么？”

Stanford’s Follmer says that just as computing went from industrial to personal to ubiquitous, so will robotics. Your great-grandparents envisioned futuristic homes cared for by a single humanoid robot—like Rosie from The Jetsons. He envisions swarms of maybe 100 bots the size of quarters that materialize to clean, take out the trash, or bring you a cold drink. (“They know ahead of time, even before you do, that you’re thirsty,” he says.)

斯坦福大学的Follmer说，正如计算技术从工业走向个人再到无处不在，机器人技术也将如此。你的曾祖父母设想的未来家庭是由一个像《杰森一家》（The Jetsons）中的机器人女仆Rosie那样的人形机器人照顾的。而他设想的是，也许有100个硬币大小的机器人群体出现，来清洁、倒垃圾，或者给你送一杯冷饮。（“他们甚至比你更早知道你渴了，”他说。）

Baby, perhaps now you have your own baby. The technologies of reproduction have changed since you were born. For one thing, says Gerber, fertility tracking will be way more accurate: “It is going to be like weather prediction.” Maybe, Kao says, flexible fabric-like sensors could be embedded in panty liners to track menstrual health. Or, once the baby arrives, in nipple stickers that nursing parents could apply to track biofluid exchange. If the baby has trouble latching, maybe the sticker’s capacitive touch sensors could help the parent find a better position.

宝宝，也许现在你有了自己的宝宝。自你出生以来，生殖技术已经发生了变化。Gerber说，一方面，生育追踪将更加准确：“它将像天气预报一样。”也许，Kao说，灵活的织物般的传感器可以嵌入护垫中来追踪月经健康。或者，一旦宝宝出生，可以使用贴在乳头上的贴片来追踪体液交换。如果宝宝在吸奶时有困难，也许贴片的电容触摸传感器可以帮助父母找到更好的姿势。

Also, goodbye to sleep deprivation. Gerber envisions a device that, for lack of an existing term, she’s calling a“baby handler”—picture an exoskeleton crossed with a car seat. It’s a late-night soothing machine that rocks, supplies pre-pumped breast milk, and maybe offers a bidet-like “cleaning and drying situation.”For your children, perhaps, this is their first experience of being close to a machine.

此外，再见睡眠不足。Gerber设想了一种由于缺乏现有术语而被她称为“婴儿处理器”的设备——想象一下一个结合了外骨骼和汽车座椅的装置。这是一个深夜安抚机器，可以摇晃，提供预先泵出的母乳，也许还有类似于坐浴器的“清洁和干燥装置”。对于你的孩子来说，也许这是他们第一次体验靠近机器的感觉。

2074

Age 50

Now you are at the peak of your career. For professions heading toward AI automation, you may be the “human in the loop” who oversees a machine doing its tasks. The 9-to-5 workday, which is crumbling in our time, might be totally atomized into work-from-home fluidity or earn-as-you-go gig work.

现在你正处于职业生涯的巅峰。对于那些趋向于人工智能自动化的职业，你可能是监督机器执行任务的“人类在环”之一。传统的朝九晚五工作日正在崩溃，它可能完全被居家工作或按需工作的流动性所取代。

Ahn thinks you might start the workday by lying in bed and checking your messages—on an implanted contact lens. Everyone loves a big screen, and putting it in your eye effectively gives you “the largest monitor in the world,” she says.

Ahn认为，你可能会从床上开始工作日，查看消息——通过植入的隐形眼镜。每个人都喜欢大屏幕，而把它放在你的眼睛里实际上给了你“世界上最大的显示器，”她说。

You’ve already dabbled with AI selves for dating. But now virtual agents are more photorealistic, and they can mimic your voice and mannerisms. Why not make one go to meetings for you?

你已经尝试过用AI自己来进行约会。但现在虚拟代理变得更加逼真，它们可以模仿你的声音和举止。为什么不让它们替你去开会呢？

Kori Inkpen, who studies human-­computer interaction at Microsoft Research, calls this your “ditto”—more formally, an embodied mimetic agent, meaning it represents a specific person. “My ditto looks like me, acts like me, sounds like me, knows sort of what I know,” she says. You can instruct it to raise certain points and recap the conversation for you later. Your colleagues feel as if you were there, and you get the benefit of an exchange that’s not quite real time, but not as asynchronous as email. “A ditto starts to blend this reality,” Inkpen says.

Kori Inkpen，微软研究院的人机交互研究员，将这称为你的“分身”——更正式地说，是一个具象化模仿代理，意味着它代表一个特定的人。“我的分身看起来像我，行为像我，声音像我，知道我知道的东西，”她说。你可以指示它提出某些观点，并在会后总结对话。你的同事会觉得你在那里，而你获得了一个交换的好处，它不是完全实时的，但也不像电子邮件那样异步。“一个分身开始模糊现实，”Inkpen说。

In our time, augmented reality is slowly catching on as a tool for workers whose jobs require physical presence and tangible objects. But experts worry that once the last baby boomers retire, their technical expertise will go with them. Perhaps they can leave behind a legacy of training simulations.

在我们这个时代，增强现实作为一种需要物理存在和具体物体的工作的工具正在慢慢普及。但专家担心，一旦最后一代婴儿潮一代退休，他们的技术专长将随之消失。也许他们可以留下培训模拟的遗产。

Inkpen sees DIY opportunities. Say your fridge breaks. Instead of calling a repair person, you boot up an AR tutorial on glasses, a tablet, or a projection that overlays digital instructions atop the appliance. Follmer wonders if haptic sensors woven into gloves or clothing would let people training for highly specialized jobs—like surgery—literally feel the hand motions of experienced professionals.

Inkpen看到DIY的机会。比如说你的冰箱坏了。你不必打电话给修理工，而是启动一个在眼镜、平板电脑或投影仪上叠加数字说明的AR教程。Follmer想知道，是否将触觉传感器编织到手套或衣物中，可以让那些接受高度专业化工作培训的人（如外科手术）实际感受到经验丰富的专业人士的手部动作。

For Poupyrev, the implications are much bigger. One way to think about AI is “as a storage medium,” he says. “It’s a preservation of human knowledge.” A large language model like ChatGPT is basically a compendium of all the text information people have put online. Next, if we feed models not only text but real-world sensor data that describes motion and behavior, “it becomes a very compressed presentation not of just knowledge, but also of how people do things.” AI can capture how to dance, or fix a car, or play ice hockey—all the skills you cannot learn from words alone—and preserve this knowledge for the future.

对于Poupyrev来说，意义更为深远。考虑人工智能的一种方式是“作为存储介质，”他说。“它是人类知识的保存。”像ChatGPT这样的语言模型基本上是人们在线上输入的所有文本信息的汇编。接下来，如果我们将模型输入的不仅仅是文本，还有描述动作和行为的现实世界传感器数据，“它变成了一个非常压缩的呈现，不仅是知识，还有人们如何做事情。”人工智能可以捕捉如何跳舞、修车或打冰球——所有那些你不能仅仅通过文字学习的技能，并将这些知识保存到未来。

2099

Age 75

By the time you retire, families may be smaller, with more older people living solo.

到你退休的时候，家庭可能会变得更小，更多的老年人将独自生活。

Well, sort of. Chaiwoo Lee, a research scientist at the MIT AgeLab, thinks that in 75 years, your home will be a kind of roommate—“someone who cohabitates that space with you,” she says. “It reacts to your feelings, maybe understands you.”

好吧，也许并不是完全如此。MIT AgeLab的研究科学家Chaiwoo Lee认为，在75年后，你的家将成为一种“室友”——“一个和你共享空间的人，”她说。“它会对你的感受做出反应，也许理解你。”

By now, a home’s AI could be so good at deciphering body language that if you’re spending a lot of time on the couch, or seem rushed or irritated, it could try to lighten your mood. “If it’s a conversational agent, it can talk to you,” says Lee. Or it might suggest calling a loved one. “Maybe it changes the ambiance of the home to be more pleasant.”

到那时，家里的AI可能已经能够很好地解读你的身体语言，如果你花很多时间坐在沙发上，或者看起来很匆忙或烦躁，它可能会尝试改善你的情绪。“如果它是一个对话代理，它可以和你聊天，”Lee说。或者它可能会建议你打电话给一个亲人。“也许它会改变家中的氛围，使其更加愉快。”

The home is also collecting your health data, because it’s where you eat, shower, and use the bathroom. Passive data collection has advantages over wearable sensors: You don’t have to remember to put anything on. It doesn’t carry the stigma of sickness or frailty. And in general, Lee says, people don’t start wearing health trackers until they are ill, so they don’t have a comparative baseline. Perhaps it’s better to let the toilet or the mirror do the tracking continuously.

家里还会收集你的健康数据，因为那里是你吃饭、洗澡和使用卫生间的地方。被动数据收集相比于可穿戴传感器有其优势：你不需要记得佩戴任何东西。它不会带有疾病或虚弱的污名。通常情况下，Lee说，人们直到生病才开始佩戴健康追踪器，因此没有比较基线。也许让厕所或镜子持续进行跟踪更为合适。

Green says interactive homes could help people with mobility and cognitive challenges live independently for longer. Robotic furnishings could help with lifting, fetching, or cleaning. By this time, they might be sophisticated enough to offer support when you need it and back off when you don’t.

Green表示，互动家庭可以帮助行动不便和认知有障碍的人更长时间地独立生活。机器人家具可以帮助搬运、取物或清洁。到那时，它们可能足够先进，可以在你需要时提供支持，而在你不需要时退缩。

Kao, of course, imagines the robotics embedded in fabric: garments that stiffen around the waist to help you stand, a glove that reinforces your grip.

当然，Kao设想了嵌入织物中的机器人技术：围绕腰部硬化的服装，帮助你站立，一种增强抓握力的手套。

If getting from point A to point B is becoming difficult, maybe you can travel without going anywhere. Green, who favors a blank-slate room, wonders if you’ll have a brain-machine interface that lets you change your surroundings at will. You think about, say, a jungle, and the wallpaper display morphs. The robotic furniture adjusts its topography. “We want to be able to sit on the boulder or lie down on the hammock,” he says.

如果从A点到B点变得困难，也许你可以在不离开任何地方的情况下旅行。Green偏爱空白的房间，他想知道你是否会有一个脑机接口，让你随意改变周围环境。你想象一下，比如一个丛林，墙纸显示屏就会变形。机器人家具调整其地形。“我们希望能够坐在岩石上或躺在吊床上，”他说。

Anne Marie Piper, an associate professor of informatics at UC Irvine who studies older adults, imagines something similar—minus the brain chip—in the context of a care home, where spaces could change to evoke special memories, like your honeymoon in Paris. “What if the space transforms into a café for you that has the smells and the music and the ambience, and that is just a really calming place for you to go?” she asks.****

UC Irvine的副教授Anne Marie Piper，专门研究老年人，她设想了一种类似的情况——只不过没有脑芯片——在养老院中，空间可以变化以唤起特别的记忆，比如你在巴黎的蜜月。“如果空间变成一个咖啡馆，有气味、音乐和氛围，并且这是一个让你感到放松的地方呢？”她问。

Gerber is all for virtual travel: It’s cheaper, faster, and better for the environment than the real thing. But she thinks that for a truly immersive Parisian experience, we’ll need engineers to invent … well, remote bread. Something that lets you chew on a boring-yet-nutritious source of calories while stimulating your senses so you get the crunch, scent, and taste of the perfect baguette.

Gerber完全支持虚拟旅行：它比真实旅行更便宜、更快、更环保。但她认为，为了获得真正沉浸式的巴黎体验，我们需要工程师发明……嗯，远程面包。某种能让你咀嚼无聊但营养丰富的卡路里来源，同时刺激你的感官，让你体验到完美法棍的脆感、气味和味道。

2149

Age 125

We hope that your final years will not be lonely or painful.

我们希望你的晚年不会孤独或痛苦。

Faraway loved ones can visit by digital double, or send love through smart textiles: Piper imagines a scarf that glows or warms when someone is thinking of you, Kao an on-skin device that simulates the touch of their hand. If you are very ill, you can escape into a soothing virtual world. Judith Amores, a senior researcher at Microsoft Research, is working on VR that responds to physiological signals. Today, she immerses hospital patients in an underwater world of jellyfish that pulse at half of an average person’s heart rate for a calming effect. In the future, she imagines, VR will detect anxiety without requiring a user to wear sensors—maybe by smell.

远方的亲人可以通过数字双胞胎来拜访你，或通过智能纺织品传递爱意：Piper设想了一条当有人想念你时会发光或变暖的围巾，Kao则设想了一种模拟他们手部触感的皮肤设备。如果你病得很重，你可以逃入一个舒缓的虚拟世界。微软研究院的高级研究员Judith Amores正在开发一种响应生理信号的VR技术。现在，她让医院的病人沉浸在一个水下的海蜇世界中，海蜇的脉动频率为平均心率的一半，具有镇静效果。在未来，她设想VR能够检测焦虑，而无需用户佩戴传感器——也许是通过嗅觉。

“It is a little cool to think of cemeteries in the future that are literally haunted by motion-activated holograms.”

“想到未来的墓地真的被动作感应全息图所‘闹鬼’，这有点酷。”

You might be pondering virtual immortality. Tim Recuber, a sociologist at Smith College and author of The Digital Departed, notes that today people create memorial websites and chatbots, or sign up for post-mortem messaging services. These offer some end-of-life comfort, but they can’t preserve your memory indefinitely. Companies go bust. Websites break. People move on; that’s how mourning works.

你可能会考虑虚拟不朽。Smith College的社会学家Tim Recuber和《The Digital Departed》的作者指出，今天人们创建纪念网站和聊天机器人，或注册死后信息服务。这些提供了一些临终的安慰，但无法无限期地保存你的记忆。公司破产。网站崩溃。人们继续前进；这就是哀悼的过程。

What about uploading your consciousness to the cloud? The idea has a fervent fan base, says Recuber. People hope to resurrect themselves into human or robotic bodies, or spend eternity as part of a hive mind or “a beam of laser light that can travel the cosmos.” But he’s skeptical that it’ll work, especially within 125 years. Plus, what if being a ghost in the machine is dreadful? “Embodiment is, as far as we know, a pretty key component to existence. And it might be pretty upsetting to actually be a full version of yourself in a computer,” he says.

那么，把你的意识上传到云端呢？Recuber说，这个想法有一个狂热的粉丝基础。人们希望将自己复生为人类或机器人，或在蜂巢思维中度过永恒的时光，或者成为“可以穿越宇宙的激光束”。但他对这种做法持怀疑态度，特别是在125年内。他还担心，如果在计算机中成为一个“幽灵”会不会令人感到恐惧？“身体存在是我们所知道的存在的一个关键组成部分。实际上成为计算机中的完整自我可能会非常令人不安，”他说。

There is perhaps one last thing to try. It’s another AI. You curate this one yourself, using a lifetime of digital ephemera: your videos, texts, social media posts. It’s a hologram, and it hangs out with your loved ones to comfort them when you’re gone. Perhaps it even serves as your burial marker. “It is a little cool to think of cemeteries in the future that are literally haunted by motion-activated holograms,” Recuber says.

也许还有最后一种尝试。这是另一种AI。你自己策划这个AI，使用一生的数字遗物：你的视频、短信、社交媒体帖子。它是一个全息图，可以在你离开后陪伴你的亲人安慰他们。也许它甚至作为你的墓碑标志。Recuber说：“想到未来的墓地真的被动作感应全息图所‘闹鬼’，这有点酷。

It won’t exist forever. Nothing does. But by now, maybe the agent is no longer your friend.

它不会永远存在。没有什么是永恒的。但到那时，也许这个代理不再是你的朋友。

Maybe, at last, it is you.

也许，最终，它就是你。

Baby, we have caveats.

孩子，我们有一些警告。

We imagine a world that has overcome the worst threats of our time: a creeping climate disaster; a deepening digital divide; our persistent flirtation with nuclear war; the possibility that a pandemic will kill us quickly, that overly convenient lifestyles will kill us slowly, or that intelligent machines will turn out to be too smart.

我们设想了一个克服了我们时代最严重威胁的世界：逐渐恶化的气候灾难；加深的数字鸿沟；我们对核战争的持续调情；可能导致我们快速死亡的疫情，过于便捷的生活方式让我们缓慢地死亡，或者智能机器会变得过于聪明。

We hope that democracy survives and these technologies will be the opt-in gadgetry of a thriving society, not the surveillance tools of dystopia. If you have a digital twin, we hope it’s not a deepfake.

我们希望民主能够存续，这些技术将成为繁荣社会中的自愿工具，而不是反乌托邦中的监控工具。如果你有一个数字双胞胎，我们希望它不是一个深度伪造的影像。

You might see these sketches from 2024 as a blithe promise, a warning, or a fever dream. The important thing is: Our present is just the starting point for infinite futures.

你可能会把这些来自2024年的草图看作是轻松的承诺、警告或狂热的梦境。重要的是：我们的现在只是无限未来的起点。

What happens next, kid, depends on you.

接下来发生什么，孩子，取决于你。